BusinessWeek Online: What The Fearless Forecasters See for 2007

DECEMBER 27, 2006 2006 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK -- THE BIG PICTURE

Fearless Forecasts from the Pros

We polled 80 strategists for their 2007 predictions, and many think tech stocks will be on top.

SLIDE SHOW: Pundits' Picks

Call it a 7% year. That's the return the 80 strategists we polled expect in 2007 for the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Our prognosticators overwhelmingly think technology will be the best-performing sector next year, but still come up with a forecast of only a 9% gain in the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite. They expect the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, to lag, with just a 6% return. Strategists are listed according to their yearend Dow forecasts, from the most bullish to the most bearish.

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Click column heading once to reorder from highest to lowest. Click twice to reorder from lowest to highest.

	Dow Jones Indus. Avg.		S&P 500		NASDAQ COMPOSITE		RUSSELL 2000		ASSET ALLOCATION*						10-YR TREASURY BOND
Name/Firm	Mid year	Year end	Mid year	Year end	Mid year	Year end	Mid year	Year end	U.S. stocks	Intl. stocks	U.S. bonds	Cash	Favorite Stock Sector	Favorite Stock	Mid year	Year end

Bernie Schaeffer Schaeffer's Investment Research	13250	14400	1475	1580	2550	2600	900	975	60	0	10	20	Cons. durables	Lennar	4.25	4.5
John Regan Americal Investment Strategies	13258	14246	1509	1619	2885	2885	938	938	65	20	10	5	Energy	Mastercard	3.75	5
John Kattar Eastern Investment Advisors	12600	14200	1440	1550	2525	3000	800	870	35	20	20	25	Energy	James River Coal	5.2	6.1
Ralph Acampora Knight Equity Markets	12300	14200	1400	1550	2400	3000	750	875	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Services	Globecomm Systems	4.2	4
Elaine Garzarelli Garzarelli Capital	N/A	14200	N/A	1640	N/A	2905	N/A	875	90	10	0	0	Technology	Lehman Brothers	N/A	4.2
Ed Yardeni Oak Associates	12450	14035	1515	1620	2632	2806	847	910	65	25	10	0	Financials	Goldman Sachs	4.6	5
Charlie Crane Scotsman Capital Management	13350	14000	1515	1615	2700	2875	820	850	95	0	0	5	Ind. cyclicals	Transocean	5	5.2
Warren Bagatelle Loeb Partners	13100	14000	1500	1600	2600	2800	840	910	65	0	15	10	Health care	N/A	4.45	4.3
Robert Froehlich DWS Scudder	13000	14000	1500	1600	2600	2800	825	875	15	50	5	0	Energy	China Mobile	4.4	4.1
Charles Reinhard Lehman Brothers Asset Management	N/A	14000	N/A	1600	N/A	2800	N/A	860	30	22	17	8	Cons. staples	Chattem	4.7	4.8
Robert Baur Principal Global Investors	13000	13850	1450	1525	2500	2850	825	900	50	20	15	10	Technology	N/A	4.75	5.25
Marc Zabicki H&R Block Financial Advisors	N/A	13800	N/A	1570	N/A	2800	N/A	880	45	10	20	20	Technology	N/A	4.75	4.5
Brian Stine Allegiant Asset Management	13100	13700	1480	1560	2600	2700	840	880	50	15	35	0	Energy	N/A	5	5.3
Stuart Freeman A.G. Edwards & Sons	13450	13700	1520	1550	2580	2630	815	830	52	8	35	5	Cons. staples	Walgreen	4.5	4.7
David Katz Matrix Asset Advisors	12901	13653	1472	1558	2610	2838	828.5	872	70	5	15	10	Technology	Medimmune	4.85	5.1
David Goerz HighMark Capital Management	12900	13650	1475	1550	2660	2830	835	880	54	12	17	15	Technology	Intel	5.3	5.8
Larry Smith Third Wave Global Investors	13000	13600	1475	1550	2650	2850	850	900	55	20	10	5	N/A	N/A	4.25	4.5
Price Headley BigTrends.com	12800	13600	1470	1550	2600	2900	820	890	60	20	20	0	Technology	International Securities Exhange	4.55	4.75
Chris Sheldon Mellon Private Wealth Management	12950	13560	1460	1520	2540	2615	820	840	36	12	40	0	Technology	N/A	4	4.25
Keith Wirtz Fifth Third Asset Management	12945	13552	1491	1601	2592	2781	823	854	56	10	26	3	Technology	Microsoft	4.75	4.5
Lincoln Anderson LPL Financial Services	13000	13500	1515	1590	2722	2900	836	860	75	5	15	5	Technology	N/A	4.5	4.7
Robert Morris Lord Abbett	13070	13500	1500	1550	2545	2600	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Ind. cyclicals	Corning	5	5.1
Jason Trennert Strategas Research Partners	12400	13500	1400	1530	2600	2850	800	900	60	15	20	5	Technology	L-3 Communications	4.5	5.3
Tim Swanson National City Private Client Group	12900	13500	1470	1525	2570	2675	820	855	50	13	32	5	Ind. cyclicals	Joy Global	4.8	5
Clare Zempel Zempel Strategic	12875	13500	1475	1550	2575	2700	825	875	60	20	10	10	Health care	Pfizer	5.25	5.5
Jim Cramer CNBC/TheStreet.com	13000	13500	1500	1550	2600	2800	874	900	70	15	0	5	Financials	Marvell Tech Group	4.75	4.85
James Wong Payden & Rygel	12600	13500	1450	1540	2750	3000	825	860	25	35	15	10	Technology	America Movil	4.5	4.3
Chris Conkey Evergreen Investments	12450	13500	1450	1550	2300	2450	800	840	50	15	20	5	Health care	Apollo Group	4.75	4.75
Tobin Smith ChangeWave Research	12876	13488	1450	1550	2650	2750	840	900	35	25	20	10	Technology	Apple	4.4	4.25
Leo Grohowski U.S. Trust	12800	13400	1450	1500	2565	2675	820	850	31	14	27	5	Energy	N/A	4.25	4.5
Jeffrey Kleintop PNC Wealth Management	N/A	13400	N/A	1525	N/A	2700	N/A	850	52	18	25	5	Technology	Goodrich	N/A	4.5
James McGlynn Summit Investment Partners	12840	13375	1450	1520	2532	2641	815	850	80	15	5	0	Ind. cyclicals	Legg Mason	5	6
Linda Duessel Federated Investors	12600	13330	1460	1570	2520	2690	820	840	43	20	34	0	Health care		4.4	4.7
Jack Ablin Harris Private Bank	12792	13300	1456	1515	2400	2540	800	820	60	35	0	5	Health care	Dow Jones Stoxx 50	4.35	4.5
Rod Smyth Wachovia Securities	12500	13300	1420	1530	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Energy	N/A	4.25	4.75
Joseph Liro Stone & McCarthy Research Associates	12700	13300	1480	1520	2580	2700	815	850	50	15	20	10	Technology	Corning	4.75	4.4
Hugh Johnson Johnson Illington Advisors	12775	13250	1450	1500	2540	2625	815	825	85	15	0	0	Cons. durables	AIG	4.95	4.85
Barry Ritholtz Ritholtz Research & Analytics	10750	13250	1225	1475	2050	2650	675	825	50	20	20	5	Cons. staples	Mosaic Co.	4.375	3.95
John Clarke H.C. Wainwright	12688	13220	1460	1535	2550	2700	840	890	45	25	20	10	Financials	Home Solutions of America	4.47	4.38
Arthur Hogan Jefferies	12850	13200	1475	1533	2553	2670	795	830	65	10	15	10	Energy	Las Vegas Sands	5.65	5.95
George Jacobsen Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen	13000	13200	1500	1550	2700	2750	875	900	70	10	15	5	Technology	Apollo Group	4.15	4.85
John Roberts Hilliard Lyons	12800	13200	1460	1500	2500	2700	800	830	50	15	30	5	Technology	Flextronics	4.85	4.35
Robert Stovall Wood Asset Management	13306	13182	1528	1514	2651	2627	N/A	N/A	40	25	15	8	Technology	Pitney Bowes	4.5	3.9
Sam Stovall Standard & Poor's	12740	13180	1450	1500	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	40	20	25	15	Ind. cyclicals	Matsushita Electric Indus.	4.8	5.2
Mark Elenowitz TriPoint Capital Advisors	13540	13176	1531	1490	2700	2664	895	882	45	25	15	12	Health care	NBTY Inc.	4.55	4.6
Roger Ibbotson Yale School of Management/Morningstar	12717	13117	1450	1502	2558	2664	814	820	31	16	31	9	N/A	N/A	4.8	4.9
William Greiner UMB Asset Management	13750	13100	1575	1525	2820	2600	920	860	65	10	25	0	Technology	Intel	4.4	4.2
Allan Roness ASR Corporate Consultants	12500	13100	1425	1465	2600	2750	830	875	70	20	0	5	Energy	Pride International	4.5	4.5
Benjamin Pace Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management	12650	13100	1450	1500	2500	2600	800	830	40	17	23	2	Technology	Monsanto	4.35	4.8
Harvey Hirschhorn Bank of America	12800	13100	1480	1520	2640	2720	830	845	53	11	31	1	Technology	N/A	5	5
Richard Sichel The Philadelphia Trust Co.	13345	13078	1508	1463	2676	2569	N/A	N/A	70	0	30	0	Technology	Harris Corp.	4.75	4.5
Gary Tapp SunTrust Robinson Humphrey	12492	13073	1432	1510	2522	2649	806	847	48	24	18	5	Technology	L-3 Communications	4.6	5
Barry Hyman EKN Financial Services	12700	13050	1440	1475	2600	2750	825	860	50	10	20	15	Technology	N/A	4.25	4.65
Charles Mayer Pioneer Investments	12250	13025	1395	1490	2445	2610	780	820	60	15	25	0	Financials	N/A	5	5.25
Vincent Gallagher Needham Funds	12800	13000	1450	1500	2550	2650	830	870	60	0	0	20	Services	Advisory Board Co.	5	5.25
Asher Plaut Brill Securities	12500	13000	1500	1550	2750	2600	875	925	65	15	10	10	Health care	IRIS International	4.5	5
Mark Jordahl FAF Advisors	12650	13000	1460	1530	2500	2700	820	850	44	14	33	7	Technology	N/A	4.75	4.75
Mike Ryan UBS	12600	13000	1450	1500	2525	2575	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Health care	N/A	4.5	5.1
Dorsey Farr French Wolf & Farr	12000	12960	1335	1440	2200	2340	710	755	20	30	15	5	Cons. staples		4.6	4.8
Joseph Battipaglia Ryan Beck	11300	12900	1280	1470	2150	2600	N/A	N/A	55	10	35	0	Health care	Microsoft	4.25	4.75
Ivan Gefen vFinance Investments	12730	12900	1443	1487	2560	2682	820	850	30	20	15	15	Technology	N/A	455	450
Jeffrey Knight Putnam Investments	12400	12900	1440	1510	2525	2675	800	840	25	20	15	10	Energy	PICO Holdings	4.25	4.25
Wendell Perkins Johnson Asset Management	12140	12810	1380	1440	2390	2490	770	800	35	40	10	10	Health care	Quest Diagnostics	4.5	4.5
Abhijit Chakrabortti JPMorgan	N/A	12800	N/A	1440	N/A	2500	N/A	810	30	30	20	15	Cons. staples	Altria Group	N/A	5.2
Tobias Levkovich Citigroup	N/A	12750	N/A	1400	N/A	N/A	N/A	800	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Technology	GE	N/A	5
Peter Trapp Bifrost Partners	12100	12750	1385	1450	2400	2530	775	835	30	30	20	20	Technology	Nutracea	4.25	4.75
Daniel Dektar Smith Breeden Associates	12470	12710	1425	1460	2455	2481	792	800	15	30	10	20	N/A	N/A	4.4	4.6
Bruce Bittles Robert W. Baird	12500	12700	1435	1460	2525	2540	810	820	45	10	40	5	Utilities	N/A	4.5	4
Tom McManus Banc of America Securities	12400	12700	1430	1465	2500	2550	740	720	55	0	20	25	Cons. staples	Phillips Van Heusen	4.75	5
Roger Debard iGlobal Capital	12200	12628	1395	1455	2460	2536	795	808	35	5	10	40	Technology	AT&T	4.75	4.95
Doug Bermingham Jesup & Lamont	12810	12500	1510	1475	2620	2560	840	795	50	15	25	10	Cons. durables	Altigen Communications	4.55	4.25
Jeff Tyler American Century Investments	12000	12200	1375	1400	2300	2425	750	750	50	12	35	3		N/A	4	4.25
Lawrence McMillan McMillan Analysis	12800	12000	1425	1360	2525	2390	850	760	25	15	35	0	Energy	Whole Foods	4.25	4.5
C. Kim Goodwin Credit Suisse	12675	11973	1425	1344	2650	2550	770	750	20	35	25	0	Cons. staples	Avis Budget Group	4.7	5.3
David Yoy RiverSource Investments	11000	11600	1250	1350	2200	2420	700	750	25	35	20	20	Energy	N/A	4.45	5
Richard Driehaus Driehaus Capital Management	11500	11600	1300	1330	2250	2300	730	745	45	30	10	10	Health care	Daktronics	4.3	4.25
Subodh Kumar Subodh Kumar & Associates	11200	11175	1300	1275	2400	2100	685	685	35	21	20	12	Health care	N/A	4.5	5
Vinny Catalano Blue Marble Research	10600	11000	1200	1260	1960	2020	635	675	40	25	5	25	Cons. staples	Consumer Staples ETF	5.5	5
Michael Painchaud Market Profile Theorems	11300	10200	1261	1094	2085	1767	684	525	25	5	20	35	Health care	Imclone	5	5.25
Richard Bernstein Merrill Lynch	N/A	N/A	N/A	1488	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	40	10	30	20	Cons. staples	N/A	N/A	N/A
Consensus	12604	13154	1441	1501	2524	2648	808	838	49	17	19	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Data compiled by Sonal Rupani, Anne Tergesen, and Bremen Leak