Wednesday November 4, 2009
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A Slower But Steady Economy

Story: After the Carnage: Bargains and Opportunities

Story: Economic Outlook: Steep Drop, Slow Ascent

The economy will begin 2009 mired in a long and deep recession, before a tepid start toward recovery in the second half. That's the view of the 45 economists in BusinessWeek's annual economic outlook survey. The most bullish projections on economic growth are at the top, sorted by fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter growth in real GDP. You can resort any column to get a new ranking of the bulls and bears in any category. Also, as noted in the table, check out the top five forecasters for 2008.

Click column heading once to reorder from highest to lowest. Click twice to reorder from lowest to highest.

Name	Firm	2008 IV	I	II	III	IV	Real GDP	Operating Profits	CPI Inflation	Core Cpi Inflation	Federal Funds Rate	10-Yr Treasury Yields	Jobless Rate	Housing Starts** 2009 Q4	Home Prices*** % Change Q4 '08-Q4 '09

WILLIAM DUNKELBERG	Nat'l Federation of Independent Bus.	-5.0	-2.0	N/A.0	2.0	2.5	2.5	5.0	2.6	2.2	1.50	3.60	7.8	0.81	-20.0
STEPHEN GALLAGHER	Societe Generale	-4.3	-1.0	1.8	2.3	2.8	1.5	5.0	N/A.5	1.5	0.25	3.50	7.7	1.00	-5.5
RICHARD DEKASER	National City Corp.	-4.7	-1.3	1.5	3.2	2.2	1.4	4.0	1.3	1.8	1.00	4.10	7.9	1.02	-4.2
JOHN POPE	Investment Economics	-N/A.5	N/A.5	1.9	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.4	3.1	2.4	1.75	4.30	7.0	N/A	-4.4
GENE HUANG	FedEx	-2.6	-N/A.5	1.6	2.2	1.9	1.3	5.0	2.3	2.6	0.50	4.50	8.0	0.89	-6.0
JAMES PAULSEN	Wells Capital Mgmt.	-4.5	-1.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	1.2	8.0	2.8	2.0	2.00	5.00	7.2	0.95	5.0
BILL CHENEY	MFC Global Investment Mgmt.	-4.0	-2.0	N/A.5	2.0	3.0	N/A.8	1.0	1.2	1.6	1.00	4.50	7.3	0.95	-7.0
MICHAEL ENGLUND	Action Economics	-5.0	-3.0	1.0	2.0	2.5	N/A.6	6.4	1.2	1.9	2.00	4.20	8.5	0.82	-9.6
RICHARD YAMARONE	Argus Research	-2.8	-1.8	N/A.7	N/A.9	1.8	N/A.6	3.8	3.3	2.7	1.75	3.50	7.4	0.65	-4.0
ALAN LEVENSON	T. Rowe Price Associates	-4.8	-1.3	N/A.5	1.4	1.4	N/A.5	-15.5	1.8	1.7	N/A	N/A	8.5	0.77	N/A
MARTIN REGALIA	U.S. Chamber of Commerce	-3.8	-1.5	-N/A.1	1.7	1.9	N/A.5	N/A	1.6	2.0	1.00	4.50	7.5	0.95	N/A.0
KEITH HEMBRE (2008)	FAF Advisors	-4.0	-2.0	N/A.0	1.0	2.0	N/A.5	-9.7	1.0	1.1	0.50	2.75	8.0	0.65	-10.0
DAVID RESLER	Nomura Securities	-4.8	-2.2	-N/A.2	1.6	1.8	N/A.2	N/A	N/A.8	1.5	0.00	4.00	8.6	0.74	-15.0
J. PRAKKEN & C. VARVARES	Macroeconomic Advisers	-5.6	-4.2	N/A.0	2.0	2.6	N/A.1	-5.9	N/A.2	1.2	0.00	2.58	8.5	1.09	N/A.0
MAURY HARRIS	UBS	-4.5	-3.0	N/A.0	1.5	2.0	N/A.1	N/A	2.0	1.3	0.75	4.00	8.3	0.81	-8.0
BRUCE KASMAN	JPMorgan Chase	-4.0	-3.0	-N/A.5	1.5	2.5	N/A.1	-1.7	N/A.7	1.5	0.00	2.40	8.2	0.80	-8.0
DIANE SWONK	Mesirow Financial	-6.2	-2.8	-N/A.6	1.7	2.2	N/A.1	3.0	N/A.3	1.3	0.00	2.55	8.6	0.84	-10.0
JOHN SILVIA	Wachovia	-5.8	-1.6	-1.3	1.3	1.5	N/A.0	-14.0	1.9	2.0	0.25	3.10	8.3	0.66	-6.0
DAVID WYSS	Standard & Poor's	-4.6	-2.6	-N/A.9	1.5	2.4	N/A.0	7.8	-N/A.2	1.0	0.25	3.80	8.4	0.96	-10.0
KEN MAYLAND	ClearView Economics	-4.9	-3.7	-N/A.5	1.7	2.5	N/A.0	-6.0	1.8	1.6	1.25	3.85	8.0	0.95	-9.0
ROBERT SHROUDS	DuPont	-6.0	-3.0	-1.5	1.5	3.0	N/A.0	N/A	N/A.0	1.0	0.50	4.00	7.9	0.90	-5.0
KEVIN LOGAN (2008)	Dresdner Kleinwort	-4.4	-2.4	N/A.0	N/A.4	1.9	N/A.0	-5.1	N/A.9	1.5	1.00	3.00	7.9	0.84	-6.5
STUART HOFFMAN	PNC Financial Services Group	-5.0	-3.0	-N/A.5	1.0	2.0	-N/A.1	-3.0	2.0	1.9	0.50	3.50	8.5	0.90	-9.0
ROBERT SCHNORBUS	J.D. Power	-4.2	-2.2	N/A.0	N/A.5	1.0	-N/A.2	-3.0	1.6	1.8	0.50	3.50	8.2	0.82	-5.0
MICHAEL NIEMIRA	Intl. Council of Shopping Centers	-4.0	-2.5	-1.5	2.0	1.0	-N/A.3	-N/A.1	2.1	2.3	2.00	3.80	7.8	0.93	-10.0
MICKEY LEVY	Bank of America	-4.2	-3.8	-1.2	1.3	2.5	-N/A.3	3.6	1.0	1.8	1.00	4.00	8.1	0.94	-15.0
KURT KARL	Swiss Re	-4.2	-2.2	-1.3	N/A.3	1.9	-N/A.3	3.2	-N/A.7	1.0	0.50	3.00	8.4	0.90	N/A.0
ROBERT DICLEMENTI	Citigroup	-4.2	-3.2	-N/A.9	N/A.6	1.5	-N/A.5	2.5	N/A.8	1.3	0.00	3.00	8.4	0.74	-15.2
NARIMAN BEHRAVESH	ISH Global Insight	-5.0	-3.8	-N/A.7	N/A.7	1.4	-N/A.6	5.4	-N/A.3	N/A.9	0.50	3.59	8.6	0.74	N/A.0
DANA JOHNSON	Comerica Bank	-6.0	-3.5	-2.0	-1.0	2.0	-N/A.6	-1.0	N/A.4	1.1	0.25	3.10	9.0	0.90	-2.4
LYNN MICHAELIS (2008)	Weyerhaeuser	-5.0	-2.8	-N/A.5	N/A.0	1.2	-N/A.6	N/A	2.0	2.2	1.25	4.20	8.4	0.80	-5.0
BART VAN ARK	Conference Board	-4.4	-3.8	-1.4	1.2	1.2	-N/A.7	5.7	-N/A.2	1.0	0.50	4.10	8.5	0.67	N/A.0
MICHAEL MORAN	Daiwa Securities America	-4.0	-2.9	-1.8	N/A.5	1.5	-N/A.7	-1.0	1.3	1.3	0.75	4.25	8.0	0.62	N/A.0
MARK ZANDI	Moody's Economy.com	-4.7	-2.5	-1.3	-N/A.2	1.5	-N/A.7	-4.0	1.1	1.4	0.50	4.10	8.7	0.79	N/A.0
NICHOLAS PERNA	Perna Associates	-4.4	-4.1	-2.5	N/A.9	2.7	-N/A.8	-N/A.7	2.5	2.0	1.50	3.98	8.5	1.15	-15.0
ALLEN SINAI	Decision Economics	-5.3	-4.1	-1.7	1.0	1.7	-N/A.8	-15.4	N/A.5	1.3	0.25	3.48	8.2	0.75	-24.5
ED YARDENI	Yardeni Research	-5.0	-3.0	-2.0	5.0	2.5	-1.0	10.0	N/A.0	1.5	1.00	2.00	7.0	1.40	-10.0
IAN SHEPHERDSON (2008)	High Frequency Economics	-6.0	-3.0	-3.0	1.0	1.0	-1.0	-25.0	N/A.1	1.3	0.25	2.00	8.5	0.70	-10.0
TOM HIGGINS	Payden & Rygel Investment Counsel	-4.0	-3.0	-2.0	-2.0	1.0	-1.5	5.0	1.0	1.5	0.25	3.25	8.1	0.55	-15.0
PAUL ASHWORTH	Capital Economics	-5.0	-3.0	-2.0	-N/A.5	-N/A.2	-1.5	-2.0	N/A.8	1.5	0.50	2.00	8.5	0.70	-10.0
WILLIAM HUMMER	Wayne Hummer Investments	-3.0	-1.3	N/A.4	1.3	2.4	-1.6	-3.5	1.3	2.2	1.25	4.20	7.3	0.76	-6.3
JOSHUA SHAPIRO	Maria Fiorini Ramirez	-2.9	-1.8	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.6	-11.0	1.0	1.5	0.50	4.25	8.2	0.70	-15.0
D. MAKI & E. HARRIS	Barclay's Capital	-4.5	-4.5	-1.0	2.0	3.0	-1.7	4.5	N/A	1.7	0.25	4.50	8.2	0.71	-15.2
DONALD STRASZHEIM	Straszheim Global Advisors	-5.0	-5.0	-2.5	-1.0	1.0	-2.0	N/A.0	2.5	1.0	1.00	4.50	9.8	0.60	-18.0
DAVID ROSENBERG (TOP 2008)	Merrill Lynch	-4.5	-4.2	-3.3	-N/A.8	N/A.0	-2.1	-8.5	N/A.7	1.2	0.50	2.80	8.3	0.62	-10.0

Note:Economists' forecasts as of Dec. 10, 2008
TOP 2008 = TOP FORECASTER FROM 2008
2008 = ONE OF TOP FIVE FORECASTERS FROM 2008

* Before-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA and CCA (NIPA BASIS)
** Millions of Starts at Annualized Rate
*** Standard&Poor's/Case Shiller Home Price Index

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