A Slower But Steady Economy


Story: What the Pros Are Saying

Story: No Recession, But...

The economy won't sink into a recession next year. That's the overwhelming view among the 54 economists in BusinessWeek's annual economic outlook survey. Responses are originally sorted in descending order by fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter growth in real gross domestic product and the names of the top five forecasters for 2007 are in bold. To help gain some additional insights from the numbers, you can resort the projections by any category.


Click column heading once to reorder from highest to lowest. Click twice to reorder from lowest to highest.
Name
I
II
III
IV
Real
GDP
Operating
Profits
CPI
Inflation
Core Cpi
Inflation
Federal
Funds
Rate
10-Yr
Treasury
Yields
Jobless
Rate
Housing
Starts**
2008 Q4
Home Prices***
% Change
Q4 '07-Q4 '08
Ethan Harris
Lehman Brothers		1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 3.25 4.20 5.2 1.00 -7.0 
Gregory Miller
SunTrust Banks		0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 -20.0 3.2 2.8 4.42 4.26 5.4 1.14 -17.0 
Keith Hembre
First American Funds		-1.1 -0.7 0.5 1.8 0.1 -4.3 2.0 2.0 2.50 3.75 5.5 0.80 -8.0 
David Rosenberg
Merrill Lynch		0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.1 -20.0 1.7 1.5 2.50 3.70 5.5 0.89 -10.0 
Ian Shepherdson
High Frequency Economics		1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 -8.0 1.9 1.9 3.00 3.70 5.5 1.10 -10.0 
Jan Hatzius
Goldman Sachs		1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 -1.9 2.8 1.8 3.00 3.95 5.5 0.75 -7.0 
Tom Higgins
Payden & Rygel		2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 7.0 2.5 1.9 3.25 4.25 5.2 1.00 -5.0 
Scott Anderson
Wells Fargo		1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 9.6 2.7 2.5 4.00 4.55 5.1 1.10 -3.0 
Nicholas Perna
Perna Associates		1.8 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.7 0.7 2.5 2.4 3.75 4.80 5.3 1.22 -4.0 
Wayne Angell
Angell Economics		1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.6 4.2 2.6 1.5 3.30 3.70 5.0 1.08 -18.0 
Lynn Michaelis
Weyerhaeuser		0.9 1.3 0.4 2.2 1.2 -20.0 3.0 2.8 3.70 4.40 5.2 1.00 -8.0 
Richard Berner & David Greenlaw
Morgan Stanley		-0.3 -0.3 1.3 2.3 0.8 -20.0 2.1 1.8 3.75 4.50 5.5 0.89 -20.0 
Richard Yamarone
Argus Research		2.5 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.7 3.0 2.3 4.25 4.25 4.9 1.20 -4.0 
Sal Guatieri
BMO Financial Group/Harris Bank		0.8 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.0 3.9 2.4 1.9 3.25 4.19 5.2 0.92 -6.0 
John Pope
Investment Economics		1.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 8.5 2.6 2.3 4.50 5.00 5.0 1.10 -3.5 
Stuart Hoffman
PNC Financial Services Group		1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.0 4.0 2.3 2.1 3.50 4.25 5.0 1.22 -6.0 
Kevin Logan
Dresdner Kleinwort		0.9 1.3 1.9 2.4 1.6 -3.0 2.0 1.8 4.00 4.70 5.1 1.17 -11.0 
Alan Levenson
T. Rowe Price Associates		1.1 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.9 3.8 2.6 2.1 3.25 -20.00 5.0 1.03 -20.0 
Michael Moran
Daiwa Securities America		0.8 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.9 0.0 2.1 2.1 3.88 4.50 4.8 1.17 -6.0 
Michael Carey
Calyon Credit Agricole Group		1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.8 8.1 2.2 2.3 3.75 4.75 5.0 1.05 -10.0 
Maury Harris
UBS		1.4 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.8 3.7 1.6 1.9 3.50 4.25 5.2 1.05 -6.0 
Dana Johnson
Comerica Bank		1.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.1 7.0 1.7 1.8 4.00 4.50 5.2 1.10 -6.0 
John Ryding
Bear Stearns		2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 4.3 2.9 2.8 4.70 5.20 4.7 -20.00 -20.0 
Kurt Karl
Swiss Re		0.9 2.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 4.4 0.8 1.6 3.75 4.45 4.8 1.00 -10.0 
Diane Swonk
Mesirow Financial		2.4 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.7 6.7 2.3 2.5 4.50 4.97 4.9 1.18 -7.0 
Gail Fosler
The Conference Board		2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 4.00 4.50 4.8 1.32 -20.0 
Michael Niemira
International Council of Shopping Centers		2.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.0 4.0 2.8 2.6 4.25 4.90 4.8 1.40 -5.0 
Gene Huang
FedEx		2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.5 6.1 2.9 2.9 4.50 4.80 5.3 1.60 -5.0 
Doug Duncan
Mortgage Bankers Association		2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 -20.0 2.6 2.4 4.50 5.00 5.1 1.13 -5.0 
Robert Schnorbus
J.D. Power and Associates		2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.4 -20.0 2.2 2.0 4.50 4.90 5.0 1.18 -5.0 
Robert Brusca
Fact and Opinion Economics		1.0 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.3 7.0 2.3 2.5 3.50 4.25 5.0 1.30 -5.0 
Stephen Gallagher
Société Générale		2.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 6.0 2.2 2.2 4.75 5.00 4.5 1.23 -7.0 
David Resler
Nomura Securities		1.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.3 3.9 3.0 2.3 3.50 4.10 5.6 1.13 -12.0 
William Dunkelberg
Nat. Fed. Of Ind. Business		2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.4 7.0 3.2 2.1 4.50 4.50 5.0 1.40 -6.0 
David Wyss
Standard&Poor's		0.6 1.5 2.4 2.8 1.8 4.8 1.6 1.9 4.23 4.76 5.1 1.06 -6.0 
Allen Sinai
Decision Economics		1.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 1.7 2.5 3.1 2.2 3.61 4.20 5.5 1.21 -10.5 
William Hummer
Wayne Hummer Investments		2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 1.5 2.2 2.2 4.75 4.70 5.0 1.25 -4.0 
Michael Englund
Action Economics		1.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.3 4.50 4.65 4.8 1.28 -4.0 
Jim Meil/Tianlun Jian
Eaton Corporation		2.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 0.1 2.2 1.8 3.90 4.50 5.6 1.05 -3.0 
Martin Regalia
U.S. Chamber of Commerce		2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.6 -20.0 3.1 2.3 4.25 4.80 5.0 1.20 -20.0 
Robert DiClemente
Citigroup		1.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.3 9.0 2.3 1.9 3.50 4.40 5.1 1.10 -20.0 
John Silvia
Wachovia		1.1 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.2 5.0 3.1 2.0 4.00 4.50 5.1 1.16 -7.0 
Nariman Behravesh
Global Insight		0.8 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.0 -0.4 1.1 1.9 3.50 3.99 5.2 1.11 -9.0 
Bill Cheney
John Hancock Financial Services		2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 5.0 2.4 2.4 4.00 5.00 4.9 1.30 -10.0 
Robert Mellman
JPMorgan Chase		1.5 2.5 3.5 3.0 2.6 5.7 2.2 2.3 4.30 4.75 4.8 1.25 -8.0 
Dean Maki
Barclay's Capital		1.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 -1.7 2.4 2.6 4.00 5.15 4.7 1.10 -20.0 
Robert Shrouds
DuPont		0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 4.0 1.8 2.0 4.00 4.80 5.0 1.25 -20.0 
Chris Varvares
Macroeconomic Advisers		1.8 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.7 10.2 2.2 2.3 4.29 4.70 5.1 1.19 -20.0 
Constantine Soras
GunnAllen Financial		0.8 2.9 4.3 3.2 2.8 3.4 2.4 2.1 4.00 4.25 4.8 1.14 -7.1 
Mark Zandi
Moody's Economy.com		1.1 1.7 2.8 3.2 2.2 8.3 2.0 2.3 4.23 5.10 5.1 1.03 -7.0 
Mickey Levy
Bank of America		0.7 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.1 7.0 2.6 2.2 3.75 4.60 5.3 1.22 -8.0 
Ken Mayland
ClearView Economics		2.4 2.9 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.5 4.79 4.14 4.4 1.13 -9.9 
Richard Dekaser
National City		1.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 2.6 0.3 2.1 2.1 4.25 4.73 4.9 1.30 -20.0 
James Smith
Parsec Financial Management		4.1 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 7.4 0.9 1.0 4.00 4.63 4.3 1.31 3.2 

Note: Economists' forecasts as of Dec. 10, 2007 * Before-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA and CCA (NIPA BASIS)
** Millions of Starts at Annualized Rate
*** Standard&Poor's/Case Shiller Home Price Index